Pakistan

Illicit Consumption registered a 14% decline in 2017, falling to 32.6 billion cigarettes.
Pakistan
Illicit Trade Volume (Bn)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Illicit trade Incidence (%)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total Tax Loss (PKR Bn)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Composition of Cigarette Consumption

77.8Bn Cigarettes
  • Cigarettes
    Bn
  • Legal Domestic Consumption (LDC)
    45.1
  • Non-Domestic Legal (NDL)
    0.1
  • Non-Domestic Illicit
    8.5
  • Domestic Illicit
    24.2
Total Cigarette Consumption
77.8Bn
Total Illicit Consumption
32.6Bn

Estimated Excise Tax Loss

PKR 59.3 Bn
  • PKR
    Bn
    USD Mn
  • Lost excise revenue
    43.4 394.3
  • Lost VAT revenue
    15.9 144.2
Actual revenue from excise duties on tobacco
PKR 71.6 Bn
Estimated Tax Loss From Illicit Consumption
PKR 59.3 Bn

Pakistan

  • Despite falling by 14.0% in 2017, Illicit Consumption remained high in Pakistan at 41.9% of Total Consumption.

  • Illicit Consumption is primarily composed of Domestic Illicit cigarettes, accounting for nearly three-quarters of total Illicit Consumption. Non-Domestic Illicit, which fell by more than 20% in 2017, consists mostly of Unspecified Market Variant products. The most prevalent brand found in the Empty Pack Survey was “Pine”, accounting for 46.5% of total Inflows of Unspecified Market Variant cigarettes.

  • The decline in Illicit Consumption coincides with a series of regulatory and enforcement initiatives aimed at reducing the volume of illicit cigarettes consumed, which included a restructured Federal Excise Tax system.

  • The Tax Loss (including GST) resulting from Illicit Consumption declined by an estimated 11.5% to PKR 59.3 billion. Lost excise revenues represented 37.7% of total potential Excise Tax receipts in 2017.

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